In today’s Middle East, dysfunction is a bigger enemy
than hostile states. The United States needs as many partners as possible in
this part of the world to tackle the current chaos. Relations between Iran, a
dominant state in the region, and the West are today at a vital crossroads.
Reaching a deal with Tehran will not only constrain its nuclear program, but
potentially pave the way for engagement on regional security issues.
The rise
of ISIS and the instability left behind by the Arab Spring has cemented
dysfunction in the Middle East. While hostile states are undesirable, deterring
or defeating them is still within the realm of possibilities for a country like
the United States. But no one has a solution to utter chaos.
Strong regional partners are vital to managing the
current disorder. States like Turkey and Saudi Arabia partially fulfill that
role. But Iran is a dominant state in the region. It is large, resource rich
and a potentially powerful partner in an unstable region. It is the largest
country in the Middle East with the capacity to pursue a serious international
agenda. A nonhostile relationship with a Tehran who could be convinced not to
want nuclear weapons would be worth its weight in gold.
The future course of the West’s relationship with
Iran hangs on reaching
a nuclear deal. For better or worst, meaningful dialogue with Iran is
predicated on resolving this issue—all other problems have taken a back seat
over the past two decades. If the negotiators aren’t able to bridge their
differences, then there will be little future dialogue with Iran.
Aside from constraining Iran’s nuclear activities, a
deal would boost President Rouhani’s more moderate agenda domestically. While a
strong, liberal and independent Iran will naturally pursue its own interests,
it will be more sympathetic to Western goals if it develops ties with the EU
and the United States. Iran could be coaxed into a role as part of the
international community, not in opposition to it. Dialogue could become the
norm, rather than the exception.
In Iraq, both sides are conscious of the role the
other can take in effectively tackling ISIS. Washington and Tehran share the
same goals: avoid Iraq’s partition and defeat ISIS. Iran is more committed to
Iraq than any other regional player. Last time Iraq’s interests were
fundamentally opposed to Iran’s there was a devastating, eight-year-long war.
Not only does ISIS threaten Iran’s interests in Iraq, but it poses a direct
threat to Iran’s borders—something Iran hasn’t seen in a long time.
ISIS can’t be defeated with just U.S.-led airstrikes.
The coalition needs local and regional support. Of course, it’s politically
impossible for either side to openly cooperate with one another. No one
envisages joint combat roles, but instead separate and complementary tactical
approaches and coordination between the coalition and Iran to effectively
tackle ISIS. But very little can be done until the nuclear file has been dealt
with.
If there is no deal, the hardliners in Tehran will be
strengthened. The failure of the talks will be attributed to the West and their
“excessive demands.” Tehran will turn away from the United States and the EU
towards countries that are less selective in their foreign relations, such as
China and Russia. Iran will continue its often-obstructive foreign policy,
because it will have little interest in contributing to Western foreign-policy
goals in the region.
It’s imperative that both sides explore all avenues
for overlap in the nuclear talks. Tehran believes the P5+1’s demands are “excessive.”
For Iran, the key issue is to avoid the reality or appearance of coercion. What
would happen to President Obama if he appeared to give in to bullying by a
foreign power? The same goes for Tehran—it can’t accept a deal that makes it
look like it said “yes” with its tail between its legs.
But the P5+1 seems to have a more flexible
negotiating position than the Iranians give it credit for. If the P5+1 can
effectively communicate this to Iran, then a settlement is plausibly within
reach.
By definition, a successful agreement will be one where
neither side feels it has achieved a perfect deal. But if the P5+1 and Iran
reach a comprehensive deal, it will constrain Iran’s nuclear program, boost
Rouhani’s liberalism in Iran and pave the way for a new era where the West can
more comfortably coordinate with Iran on regional crises. Everyone will be
better off.
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