A comprehensive and verifiable
weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone in the Middle East is in Israel’s best
long-term interest. Israel should be leading an effort to establish a regional
security regime, for three principal reasons.
First, in contrast to what most Israelis seem to
believe, Israel’s nuclear deterrence has been patently ineffective. Israel was
not able to prevent or stop missile and rocket attacks on its population
centers by Saddam Hussein in 1991, by Hezbollah in 2006, or by Hamas from 2007
to '09. It was diplomacy and moderation that led to peace with Egypt and
Jordan, not nuclear deterrence. Paradoxically, raising the specter of a nuclear
Iran indicates that Israel’s leaders do not trust their own nuclear deterrence.
What is the use of a deterrence policy that does not deter?
Second, Israeli nuclear monopoly in the Middle East
is not sustainable over the long run. An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear
installations would buy Israel some time at best, at a high cost. Iran and
others will ultimately find a way to acquire such weapons. Moreover, several
Middle Eastern states possess chemical and biological weapons and long-range
ballistic missiles. Ultimately, Israel would have to choose between a
nuclearized and a nuclear-free Middle East. The former poses far greater risk
to its security and survival than the latter.
Third, Israel could use its nuclear weapons as a
bargaining chip that would help the nation define the terms of the regional
security regime. It could supplement the “land for peace” principle with the
“nukes for security” principle.
Israel’s military strategy has been daring and
creative, while its peace strategy has been hesitant and reactive. It is time
Israeli diplomacy caught up to its military ingenuity.
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